Analysis: Ireland must question cost of neutrality

“All of our countries have experienced being part of Russia, being occupied by Russia, or being invaded by Russia,” said Ukrainian ambassador Gerasko Larysa.

She was in Cork this week as one of six Eastern European ambassadors who spoke in UCC as part of a discussion entitled Russian Aggression: Lessons Learned.

Five of those ambassadors were from EU member states, and Ms Larysa’s country has repeatedly expressed a strong desire to become part of the union.

Ms Larysa spoke with The Echo in Cork’s Clarion Hotel on Wednesday afternoon, accompanied by Estonian ambassador Kairi Künka, Polish head of mission Artur Michalski, Finnish ambassador Leena Gardemeister, Lithuanian ambassador Jonas Grinevičius, and Latvian ambassador Juris Štālmeistars.

It had been only a fortnight since US president Donald Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, in the full glare of the world’s media, subjected Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to a public humiliation in the Oval Office.

Mr Trump has long avoided criticism of Vladimir Putin and has been slow to accept that Russia was the aggressor in invading Ukraine.

The Polish head of mission in Ireland, Artur Michalski, was unequivocal: “The people of Ukraine are victims of this war, and Russia is the clear aggressor, and I think we should avoid the situation that this line would be somehow blurred.”

There were noncommittal smiles when the ambassadors were asked if Donald Trump had overturned in two months what has been, for eight decades, the world order. Eventually the Ukrainian ambassador replied.

“Ukraine wants peace,” she said. “And, you know, together we will be more strong, and of course we have to be united with US partners, with European partners, in order to stop the war, and in order to bring a just and lasting peace.

“We hope that the US will be a strong partner on this path.”

It is 11 years since Russia first began its partial invasion of Ukraine, and three years since the full-scale invasion in February, 2022. What is the national mood in Ukraine now? Are people downcast?

“People are strong, people are brave,” Ms Larysa said. “Yes, people are tired, that’s true, but they are strong. We are strong. We defend ourselves. We are fighting for our existence.

“If we lose, our country will stop existing. As of today, seven million Ukrainians left the country. In the worst scenario, 90% of Ukrainians will leave the country, because we know how it will be under Russian occupation.

“Russia has stolen almost everything, everything that they could steal. They have deported 20,000 Ukrainian children, 20,000 confirmed cases, the true figure is higher,” she claimed.

RENEWED INTEREST

With growing alarm in Europe at the realisation that the US may no longer be the guarantor of global security that it perhaps once was, Irish neutrality is being discussed with renewed interest.

At the same time, the Government has spoken of plans to remove the so-called ‘triple lock’, which prevents the deployment of more than 12 Irish troops overseas without the approval of the Government and the Dáil, and a United Nations mandate.

Ms Larysa said that while Ireland did not supply any lethal aid to the Ukrainian war effort, her country was grateful the non-lethal assistance it has provided, including expertise in de-mining.

Expert opinion suggests it will take at least 50 years to clear Ukraine of Russian mines, she said.

Each and every EU country needed to contribute to European security, the Latvian ambassador, Juris Štālmeistars, said.

“And not just the EU, but pan-European, with the UK being part of that, and I think there is the emergence of a coalition of the willing, willing to defend democracy, to defend all the values that we share, but I think that it is very important that Ireland doesn’t [just] defend its neutrality but it defends its people and economy and society,” he said.

“And, of course, when we look at Ireland, the first thing that comes to mind is the critical infrastructure, undersea cables, the resilience of your economy as being the hub for data centres or tech companies.

“I think economic resilience is very important, to diversify your investments or trade relationships, and then comes energy security, and we very much welcome Ireland’s plan to go ahead with an LNG terminal,” Mr Štālmeistars said.

“Talking from our own experience, how we managed to change over a couple of years from full dependence on Russian gas and electricity, now we have zero gas imports from Russia, we are synchronised with the centre of Europe, and I think this is a good example that Ireland can look at.”

CYBER ATTACK

Ireland was also vulnerable to cyber-attack, he said, such as the 2021 attack on the HSE.

Geographic distance from Russia meant nothing in the modern world, Estonian ambassador Kairi Künka said. “You are very close. It is the 21st century and they don’t know borders,” she said.

Ms Larysa added: “From time to time, you can see Russian submarines not far from West Cork, so you are very close.”

If Russian aggression went unchecked, she said, Moldova might be Putin’s next target, or the Baltic states “or anywhere”.

Ireland will “probably have to really reflect on the notion of what is neutrality”, Lithuanian ambassador Jonas Grinevičius said.

“When it was conceived a hundred years ago, you cannot really compare the situation and circumstances these days to a century ago.

“You ed the European Union 50-plus years ago and since that the EU has evolved considerably, you definitely want to reflect on that.

“The triple lock is your internal debate, we don’t want to dwell on that, but I think the Taoiseach put it very well, and the Tánaiste. Why would you want to give some permanent of the UN Security Council a veto on your actions?

“A double lock is OK, because then you exercise your sovereignty with your government and parliament, but the triple one looks like an excuse not to do much on the international arena.”

Finnish ambassador Leena Gardemeister said the immediate priority had to be a just and viable peace in Ukraine. 

“European security is on the line and we must stand united in ing Ukraine in every country, in every way that we can, and Europe needs to be at the table for any negotiated peace,” she said.

“When we are talking about peace in Ukraine, we are talking about peace in Europe.”